Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 23.473540 25.791708 28.398506 31.582240 35.415875 39.951681 45.833117
2025-01-26 20.079962 23.059921 26.686657 31.549680 38.113523 47.030777 60.828313
2025-02-02 17.932645 21.266420 25.571567 31.791839 41.058837 55.425794 82.408568
2025-02-09 16.426653 19.971910 24.770914 32.151681 44.163774 65.371160 115.092534
2025-02-16 15.211254 18.854635 23.973389 32.261909 46.835864 75.977909 163.887429
2025-02-23 14.107146 17.736509 22.979479 31.814248 48.357420 85.287066 231.041180
2025-03-02 13.313792 16.961577 22.370945 31.844667 50.751458 98.385934 371.069004
2025-03-09 12.583500 16.199726 21.675930 31.575682 52.441680 111.279492 649.781982
2025-03-16 11.937242 15.502330 20.997215 31.205330 53.795338 124.805315 1416.693300
2025-03-23 11.382329 14.896619 20.399497 30.880085 55.164298 140.448199 7012.986547
2025-03-30 10.914733 14.388867 19.910781 30.682636 56.809268 160.223796 NaN
2025-04-06 10.407666 13.785192 19.206128 29.949951 56.831156 172.970955 NaN
2025-04-13 10.276303 13.769655 19.513522 31.362830 63.535864 243.939740 NaN
2025-04-20 9.898101 13.333626 19.046012 31.056228 65.012196 286.149373 NaN
2025-04-27 9.611059 13.028093 18.785401 31.168899 67.979092 364.051347 NaN
2025-05-04 9.370937 12.784468 18.615197 31.461006 71.794489 498.910300 NaN
2025-05-11 9.122832 12.512869 18.370444 31.542150 74.952303 695.447313 NaN
2025-05-18 8.830761 12.152462 17.933107 31.100100 75.876280 886.207901 NaN
2025-05-25 8.613599 11.907808 17.697512 31.124454 78.887485 1408.395768 NaN
2025-06-01 8.379437 11.623044 17.365588 30.863421 80.570517 2263.593726 NaN
2025-06-08 8.150080 11.336565 17.012520 30.506004 81.704810 4044.447751 NaN
2025-06-15 7.939538 11.073857 16.690312 30.192462 82.989893 10890.498388 NaN
2025-06-22 7.754174 10.847265 16.425866 30.002151 84.909627 NaN NaN